2008 spring demonstrations in France - a critical time.

Since Nicolas Sarkozy got elected 1 year ago, the public has been expecting a showdown between his government and the unions resisting social reforms. On the night he was elect President of France, some students already demonstrated against him. The feelings were running high after a tense debate between candidates and unwise words from Segolene Royal who warned voters that people may go on the street would Nicolas Sarkozy be elected. Back late last year, we also had another taste with the transport strikes putting Paris in a grid lock and nothing moved for nearly two weeks until they lost public support and they had to back down. Everybody thought at that time that the government had its way and reforms could start rolling out... The fact is that this strike was unpopular because it touched a very limited number of people perceived as benefiting from the system. They quickly lost public and media support they went back to work. Also the government gave away enough in compensation so that the matter was resolved! Xavier Bertrand was the winner of the showdown emerging has one on the star in the government.

After 8 months and with Nicolas Sarkozy honeymoon ending with the French people at the same time it started with Carla Bruni, people's mood in France had dramatically changed. It is now winter season, it is dark and cold and people are having a hard time to realize their hopes from last spring would take pain to come through. The French people who nonetheless have elected the new president with a clear mandate for change are now filling uncomfortable with all the reforms coming their way. The mod is back on the street. In 2008, it has been strikes after strikes led by the public sector arguing for increasing purchase power.

For 2008, the government has laid out a long string of reforms ranging from State reform to Hospitals reform. This is likely to impact everyone in the country in a way or another. The problem is that French people want and love change but not for them. Today it seems, the most of the French do not want it anymore and they will resist against as much as they can. An example is the pension reform consisting in increasing to 41 the number of years (to align France to other countries of the same kind) of contribution and affecting everyone is not well accepted and union want compensations.

The student (college people) demonstrations are growing stronger from week to week. The students have concerns over their future and they express themselves on the street. After 40 years everyone has in mind the myth of May 68 "revolution". The students hope for the same kind of demonstrations and the politicians always fear what can come from the street. Chirac for instance did nothing of his 12 year in office after Paris was blocked in December 95 over pension reform. Nicolas Sarkozy during his run up to the presidency made a point he wanted to break off
with the May 68 mentality. Can he do that?

The scene is set. On one side, the students fearing for their future in a society where the unemployment is very high for under 25 years old and the workers and unions resisting welfare state changes. These people well supported by an opposition party in desperate need for unity looking for any values coming their way to reunite. On the side, the government elected to implement changes and in an urgent need to rebalance budget deficit badly impacted by too much social benefits.

It looks like if spring 2008 will be a hot moment. A break or make milestone from which a lot of the future of Nicolas Sarkozy capacity to implements reform will depend on in the future. Backing down to obviously would be interpreted as going back to old Chirac days. Enforcing the reform will definitely be a win to start rolling out reform from. Nicolas Sarkozy will surely loose popularity rating in the process but if he wants to have a change to be reelected in 2012 he most do the reforms. It is his only chance and I believe he knows that.